In an interview, John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, expressed his belief that the central bank’s efforts to cool down the economy are nearing their peak. He expects that interest rates could start to decrease next year. Williams stated that inflation is coming down as expected, but the extent of the rise in unemployment as the economy cools is uncertain. As a result, interest rates are unlikely to rise much further beyond the current range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. Williams also did not rule out the possibility of lowering rates in early 2024, depending on economic data. His comments indicate that moderating inflation may lead to a shift in the central bank’s policy approach.
Williams discussed the current strength of the economy and the indicators that suggest supply and demand are moving closer together. He emphasized the need to achieve a balance in the economy to sustain 2 percent inflation. He stated that the restrictive monetary policy is in a good place but noted the importance of monitoring the data to determine if additional rate increases are necessary. Williams mentioned that the debate is whether another rate increase is needed or not, as the peak rate may have been reached. He explained that the duration of maintaining a restrictive policy stance would depend on the data and its impact on real interest rates.
Regarding the future of monetary policy, Williams stated that if inflation continues to decrease, it would be natural to bring down nominal interest rates next year. He emphasized the importance of maintaining a suitable monetary policy stance for a growing economy and achieving 2 percent inflation. Williams anticipated that inflation would come down to 2 percent over the next two years, enabling monetary policy to return to a more normal setting gradually.
Williams addressed the surprising trends in data over the past couple of years due to various factors such as the pandemic and geopolitical events. He mentioned that the inflation data has been in line with his expectations and hopes. On the topic of job growth, he suggested that while labor force participation may continue to increase, the rebound experienced after the pandemic is not sustainable. As for wage growth, he viewed it as an indicator rather than a target, emphasizing the need to analyze various indicators to assess the balance between supply and demand and its implications for inflation.
When asked about the possibility of skipping a rate increase in September, Williams explained that the decision would be based on analyzing the data available. He highlighted the shift from a period of high inflation risks to one with two-sided risks that need to be balanced. The goal is to avoid weakening the economy excessively while achieving the central bank’s objectives.
In conclusion, Williams expects that interest rates could start to decrease next year as the central bank’s efforts to cool down the economy reach their peak. He emphasized the importance of achieving a balance in the economy to sustain 2 percent inflation. Williams highlighted the need to monitor the data and make appropriate decisions regarding monetary policy. The ultimate goal is to maintain a suitable monetary policy stance that supports a growing economy and brings inflation to the desired level.