The upcoming 2024 election is shaping up to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump. Despite facing mounting legal troubles, Trump remains the most popular candidate in the Republican field, with only Florida governor Ron DeSantis reaching double digits in popularity, though still far behind Trump. On the Democratic side, author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr are challenging Biden for the nomination, but they are not seen as serious threats to the president. Trump was indicted for the third time on August 1st for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, but rather than weaken his support, these legal problems seem to only strengthen his base.
The Republican primary is set to begin with the Iowa caucuses on January 15th and the New Hampshire primary on January 23rd. While the primary season may extend until June, it is expected that the nominee will become clear well before that point.
Many in the Biden team believe that abortion rights could be a path to victory in 2024. While the main strategy is to focus on the so-called blue wall states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, as well as states like Georgia and Arizona, some aides to Biden are working on winning back territory that hasn’t been won by Democrats in a decade or more. One such opportunity is in North Carolina, where a 12-week ban on abortion has gone into effect. Despite objections from Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, the bill was overruled. A Biden campaign official said it would be “crazy” not to try and win North Carolina, especially since Biden lost the state by only a single percentage point in 2020.
According to a national poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University, Trump is still well in the lead in the GOP primary, receiving 58% of support. DeSantis comes in second with 15%, followed by Christie and Pence with 5% each. While Trump’s legal problems do appear to be causing some concern among his supporters, criticisms of Trump have given Christie and Pence a boost, but it remains to be seen if it will be enough to win the primary. Among Trump supporters, 48% said they would consider backing someone else, and 17% of GOP primary voters believe the indictments against Trump. Among that group, Christie is leading with 25%, followed by DeSantis with 19% and Pence with 16%.
Furthermore, a majority of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in second place with 15.6% support. Biden’s approval rating currently stands at 40.5%, with 55.1% disapproving. In the Democratic primary polls, Biden faces no real threats, with anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr receiving 15.2% support. Biden himself is at 64.3% as of August 8th.
Interestingly, a poll in New Hampshire revealed that 62% of GOP primary voters in the state would still vote for Trump even if he is convicted of a felony, and 57% said they would support him even if he is serving time in prison by the time of the 2024 election. This level of loyalty to Trump is unmatched by any other political figure, making it difficult for any Republican candidate to peel away these voters.
Overall, it appears that the 2024 election will be a battle between Biden and Trump once again. Despite his legal troubles, Trump remains wildly popular among Republicans, while Biden’s team is exploring new strategies to secure a win, including focusing on abortion rights and winning back territory not won by Democrats in a decade or more. The primary season will officially kick off in January, and the nominee is expected to become clear well before June.